Euro showed early signs of technical reversal
Sunday, 27 September 2009
| Posted by mayurOverall earnings plunged 85 percent to $98.9 billion
Saturday, 19 September 2009
| Posted by mayurThe SEC also proposed rules to ban "flash trading"
Friday, 18 September 2009
| Posted by mayur
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said agencies must disclose more information on past ratings to help investors make informed judgements.The agencies, which give firms ratings to determine how safe an investment they may be, have been criticised for their role in the financial crisis.
The dominant agency firms include Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch.
'Flash trading' moves
Head of the SEC, Mary Schapiro, said that investors' reliance on agency ratings "did not serve them well over the last several years".
Earlier this year, credit rating agencies admitted errors were made when assessing some of the financial instruments that have been blamed for the credit crunch.
The agencies have been accused of failing to spot the size and risk of the bad US housing debt that was resold around the world, causing multi-billion-pound losses.
They gave high ratings to sub-prime mortgage investment vehicles that later turned out to be incorrect.
The SEC also proposed rules to ban "flash trading" - the process where certain financial institutions gain access to trading information seconds before it is made public.
Execution and money management is automatic
Wednesday, 16 September 2009
| Posted by mayurWith the FXDD Auto platform, traders have the ability to monitor, control and configure trades from signal providers. A trader's presence is not required to enter or exit trades. Execution and money management is automatic, and includes trailing stop losses, stop and limit orders and trade updates.
Trading the world currency markets were only available to large banks and institutions until recent times. Now thanks to the internet the same opportunity is now available to anyone with an internet connection. Currency trading can be very profitable and it is very easy to learn how to trade currency online.The currency markets or foreign exchange is often called the forex. One of the fastest ways to learn to trade the forex is to sign up with for a free demo account with a forex broker and dive in and start trading. Most forex brokers will provide free demo accounts loaded with play money that they will give you for practicing.With a demo you can start playing around with it and see first hand how the markets work. You can hit your buy and sell buttons and see what happens. At this point it doesn't matter if the demo makes or loses money since it's not real. But it works just like a real money account and will show you exactly how forex trading works.After you start to get a feel for how forex trading works then you can start searching for more information. Since you have some experience now the information you seek and find will have more relevance to you. There are many online courses that will teach you to trade but some can be quite expensive. Courses can be good but a lot of information can be found in books or free on the internet.Although forex trading is simple, it can take a while for many traders to develop the good trading habits and discipline that is most import to having success with trading. Be sure and give yourself plenty of time to practice on a demo and prove to yourself that you can make money before trading with real money.For most new traders it can take months or even a year or two before they get good enough to maintain consistent profits. But this doesn't mean you can't make money right away with forex trading. Automated forex trading is becoming increasingly popular and can bring you immediate profitable trading. Automated forex trading uses computer programs called expert advisors or robots to trade your account for you.Expert advisers can be bought inexpensively, are easy to set up and if you get a good one they can be much more consistent than most human traders. After they are set up they trade using a system and do it all on autopilot. You can host them on either your own computer or a remote server.If you want to learn how to trade currency online start with a demo where you can get some immediate real life experience on how the markets work. Be sure and give yourself plenty of time to go through the learning curve before using real money. If you want to make money now with forex trading use an expert adviser to trade your account for you.
Forex trading systems should be on your list of consideration
| Posted by mayurA lot of people who plunge into the forex trading
| Posted by mayurAbout Forex trading
| Posted by mayurDeveloping heavy crude oil resources
| Posted by mayur
The move comes shortly after Venezuela signed a similar agreement with Russia, which is estimated to be $20bn (£12bn).President Hugo Chavez said the deals would boost oil production in Venezuela by about 900,000 barrels per day.
Investors in Venezuela's oil industry have complained for months that a lack of government investment in infrastructure has hurt production.
Multi-polar world
Speaking on state television, Mr Chavez said the deal with China was over three years and that the investment would go towards developing heavy crude oil resources in the Orinoco River belt.
For President Chavez it is part of a wider effort to increase his base of bilateral partners in the oil industry.
The socialist leader often speaks of what he calls a "multi-polar world" in which Latin American countries are less dependent on Washington.
However, US companies and the US government are still the mainstay of the Venezuelan energy industry.
The Venezuelan leader will hope that these multibillion dollar deals, signed with countries which are more friendly to his "21st Century Socialist Revolution", will give him further economic independence from Washington.
Uzbekistan has fallen five places this year
Tuesday, 15 September 2009
| Posted by mayur
On September 8, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) presented its annual report Doing Business 2010: Reforming through Difficult Times. Of the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, this year’s leader in streamlining business procedures was Kyrgyzstan, ranked 41 out of the 183 countries by the IFC study. Kazakhstan ranked 63, Uzbekistan 150 and Tajikistan, 152nd. The report looked at reforms implemented by each country since June 2008.One of the report's authors, Svetlana Bagaudinova, stated that "the countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia are ahead of other regions in the number of reforms undertaken to facilitate business procedures."
This year, Kyrgyzstan jumped 27 places in the world rankings and was ranked the second most active reformer. According to Neil Gregory, advisor for Financial and Private Sector Development in the World Bank Group, "Kyrgyzstan has shown for the second year running that it can make great strides in a broad range of indicators analysed in the report." He points out that "this year's ratings jump is the result of strong cooperation between the government, representatives of the private sector and donor organisations."
Lagging behind in 63rd place, Kazakhstan only moved up one spot from last year's rank. Bagaudinova noted however, that "one of the country's significant reforms this year has been to improve the business climate by lowering tax burdens on private companies." She also noted new streamlined procedures to obtain building permits, the repeal of installation fees for new connections to the electricity grid and a drop in the price of building site surveys. "It's clear that the government has focused on improving the business climate, and reforms that are in the pipeline for next year will place Kazakhstan in a higher ranking," Bagaudinova said.
In contrast, Uzbekistan has fallen five places this year, while Turkmenistan failed to make the cut and was not included in the rankings.
That expression first caused controversy in March
Monday, 14 September 2009
| Posted by mayur
"The rich countries are more to blame because they did not have any regulation for their financial system," he said in an exclusive interview with the BBC on the global downturn.President Lula has positioned himself as a kind of informal spokesperson for the developing world since the beginning of the crisis.
He has been defending what he perceives as the interests of the poor in places such as Latin America, Africa and Asia and asking for changes in the global financial system.
President Lula told the BBC that the governments of rich countries "knew how to give their opinion about everything related to the economy of the developing countries.
"But, when they felt the pain, they did not know how to act."
It was the rich who were responsible for the crisis
President Lula
His criticism was also directed at the international economic institutions.
"The IMF didn't have a solution, it wasn't sure and didn't have an answer," he said.
"The World Bank didn't have a solution, it wasn't sure and didn't have an answer. And the governments also didn't!"
'Blue-eyed bankers'
President Lula also insisted that the crisis was the creation of "white, blue-eyed bankers" in the rich world.
That expression first caused controversy in March, when the Brazilian leader used it while standing next to Gordon Brown during the UK prime minister's visit to Brasilia.
He was criticised for using the expression, considered by some to be inappropriate and bordering on racism.
During his recent interview, however, he was unrepentant.
"What I wanted to say is more noteworthy today than it was then. What I wanted to say was that it wasn't the indigenous or the black population who should pay the bill [for the crisis] but those really responsible, the blue-eyed bankers.
"It was the rich who were responsible for the crisis. And we weren't going to allow them to put the blame on the poor people of the world, as always happens when there is an economic crisis", President Lula said.
The president, however, seemed confident that the leaders of the G20 group of developed and emerging countries could find solutions if they kept working together.
They will meet again to discuss the crisis in the US city of Pittsburgh on 24 and 25 September, and Brazil is hoping to influence the debate, calling for further changes to the financial system.
'No legitimacy'
President Lula defended the group, arguing that the G20 was becoming an important forum for debating and finding solutions for the economy.
But he also argues that the group should widen its goals and start implementing policies to speed up development.
"I hope... that the poor of the world, the emerging countries, are not only called upon to resolve the problem of the crisis and then, when the crisis is over, the G20 will be dissolved and we go back to the G8," he said.
According to the Brazilian president, the G8 does not have the credibility to deal with the global economic challenges.
He said the G8 was "a closed club" which had "no legitimacy" to debate the current crisis.
IFC analysts note
Friday, 11 September 2009
| Posted by mayur
TASHKENT — A survey by the International Finance Corporation (IFC) of no less than 1300 Uzbek companies reveals that the country's private sector spends US$184 million each year on book-keeping, which is an enormous sum for the economy. More is spent on tax reports in one year than the government has spent in the last three years on cotton processing facilities.The book-keeping required by Uzbekistan's tax authorities consumes 0.7 percent of the country's GDP, notes Vsevolod Payevskiy, director of an IFC project to improve Uzbekistan's business environment. Although keeping track of a company's indicators is essential, the Uzbek process exacts a heavy toll from private enterprises.
Uzbek businessmen are required to submit up to a dozen financial reports to authorities each year, each of which requires an average of ninety-five hours to compile. Another 40 hours or so are spent on statistical accounting. Since the average Uzbek private company has seven employees, these requirements mean that one of these employees works full-time on nothing but tax filings, statistical reports and other tax documents.
IFC analysts note that financial reporting has become extremely time-consuming in Uzbekistan, partly because of shortcomings in the country's tax code. This spring, parliament was forced to adopt a new version of the code because of countless disparities between the Uzbek- and Russian-language versions of the tax laws. According to IFC analysts, however, the revised versions still contain at least 80 discrepancies. These differences allow officials to interpret financial reporting requirements arbitrarily, which is one reason why Uzbekistan’s government ranks186 in the world for transparency.
The IFC has prepared eleven recommendations for improving the Uzbek tax code and has invited more than 500 tax inspectors from seven of the country's regions to attend training sessions on current methods of processing company reports.
Financing fictitious deals
| Posted by mayur
KAZAKHSTAN — Kazakh Prime Minister Karim Masimov suggested at a cabinet meeting on Aug. 18 that “audits be conducted to prevent fraud by bank executives.”He said confidence in the integrity of bank managers had been undermined by instances of fraud recently discovered at two large banks, BTA and Alliance Bank. “The top four managers of the banks were swindlers,” Masimov said, and asserted that they had submitted false information to regulators.
BTA Chairman Mukhtar Ablyazov left Kazakhstan soon after the government bought shares in the bank at the start of the year under a memorandum signed by the government and shareholders, due to the risk of default. After new managers representing the state were appointed, authorities brought charges against Ablyazov and several members of his team, accusing them of financing fictitious deals. The Prosecutor General also accused the banker of misappropriating US$550,000.
The Financial Regulatory Agency found a discrepancy in the books at Alliance Bank that offered the state the controlling interest at the start of the year for a symbolic price of less than one U.S. dollar. The bank provided guarantees for fictitious contracts worth $1.1 billion that were funneled into offshore accounts.
There have been no arrests in the Alliance Bank case, but the regulator accused former Chairman Zhomart Yertayev of providing the guarantees. Chairman of the Board Margulan Seisembayev explained that this was Yertayev’s method for raising shareholder capital, but Financial Regulatory Agency Chair Yelena Bakhmutova considered this activity illegal. The bank had not received the permission required by Kazakh law to provide guarantees for those amounts.
Bakhmutova said the agency knew which measures were needed to prevent fraud. “Bank decisions should not be made by one individual, but by a board, and naturally, banks and financial organisations must have normal risk management systems in place. And only people with flawless business reputations should be named to executive positions, not just the board of directors and management, but shareholders as well,” she said.
The funds will be to develop new products and expand production by an extra 100,000 units in China.Some 1.3bn euros of the investment will be used to raise output capacity in both Nanjing and Chengdu by 50,000 units to 350,000 each over two years.
Meanwhile, VW is also exploring the possibility of building cars in Malaysia with local automaker Proton
'Demand growing'
From 2012 Nanjing would also build three new models in addition to the Jetta and in Chengdu two new models on top of the Santana Vista.
The German carmaker, which sees China as its most important overseas market, also builds cars in Shanghai and in the northern Chinese city of Changchun.
"China is one of Volkswagen's most important markets worldwide," chief executive Martin Winterkorn said.
"Demand for our products is growing so fast that our capacity is no longer sufficient."
New calculations by the BBC
| Posted by mayur
New calculations by the BBC, based on IMF data given to G20 finance ministers, shows these countries have spent a total of $10 trillion (£6tn).The UK and US spent the most, with the UK spending far more, 94% of its GDP compared to 25% in the US.
That equates to £30,000 per person in the UK and $10,000 in the US.
Of course, most of this bail-out money was in the form of guarantees to the banking system, and as that system pulls out of the crisis, governments stand to recover most but not all of that money.
However, there are several other ways to measure the severity of the crisis which has led to the world falling into recession for the first time in 60 years.
They all show the extent of the damage and illustrate the point that the damage has been most severe for the rich countries - especially the US and the UK with their large financial sectors - who were at the heart of the crisis.
Private write offs
The private financial sector is estimated to have write-offs amounting to $4tn, of which two-thirds are losses suffered by the big international banks such as Citigroup or RBS.
nd although about half of these losses ($1.8tn) are write-offs of securities backed by sub-prime mortgages, the damage caused by the crisis has spread much wider to other banking assets, with big write-offs of commercial mortgages and company loans as well.
These big write-offs, which have wiped out about 10 years of banking sector profits, have also made it hard for the banks to rebuild capital in order to give themselves the security to resume lending.0
Many experts think it will take years, if not decades, before lending returns to pre-crisis levels, and reduced lending was one of the key causes of the economic slowdown, along with a massive collapse of confidence in financial markets.
World economy shrinks
The world economy is projected to shrink by 2.3% this year, or nearly $1tn, a loss of output shared by all citizens, but particularly affecting the rising numbers of the unemployed.
If you take into account the fact that the world economy normally grows by more than 2% per year, then the loss of output caused by the recession is almost $2tn - although some of that may be made up in future years.
However, in order to try to boost growth, governments have borrowed billions of dollars in stimulus funds.
Over the next five years, UK government debt is expected to rise from £600bn to £1.4tn, while the US national debt could double to $10tn.
This extra government debt will have to be paid by future taxpayers, whose ability to spend money on government services like health and education will be constrained. The interest on the UK government's debt in 2014 could be bigger than its entire education budget.
Wealth effect
Finally, individuals are also feeling less wealthy as a result of the drop in the value of their assets. Not only are their homes worth less, but their financial assets, such as stocks and shares, have also declined in value in the last 12 months.
The BBC, in conjunction with the Halifax, estimates that in the UK national wealth held by individuals has dropped by £815bn in the past year (comparing end 2007 with end 2008), with a 15% drop in the value of people's homes and a 9% drop in the value of their other financial assets. These figures do subtract the value of debts, such as mortgages, from the overall valuation.
Of course, wealth is distributed very unevenly, and those who are not homeowners and do not have a pension will not be feeling the effects as much - unless they are finding it hard to get a job.
But there is no doubt that it is curbing people's overall spending plans, and thus exacerbating the recession (the so-called "wealth effect").
It may be some time before we return to an era where people were borrowing against the notional value of the increase in the value of their home to buy holidays and big-screen televisions.
And, as these figures make clear, we will all be paying the price of the collapse of Lehman Brothers for some time to come.
The federal government is unlikely
Wednesday, 9 September 2009
| Posted by mayur
WASHINGTON - The federal government is unlikely to recoup all of the billions of dollars that it has invested in General Motors and Chrysler, according to a new congressional oversight report assessing the automakers' rescue.The report said that a $5.4 billion portion of the $10.5 billion owed by Chrysler is "highly unlikely" to be repaid, while full recovery of the $50 billion sunk into GM would require the company's stock to reach unprecedented heights.
"Although taxpayers may recover some portion of their investment in Chrysler and GM, it is unlikely they will recover the entire amount," according to the report, which is scheduled to be released Wednesday.
The report also recommended that the Treasury Department act with more transparency and provide a legal analysis justifying the use of financial rescue funds for the automakers. The report was prepared by the Congressional Oversight Panel, which is overseeing the federal bailout programs.
In all, the government has invested $74 billion in the nation's auto industry, including $12.5 billion into auto financing giant GMAC and $3.5 billion into auto suppliers, according to the report.
Catastrophe averted?The panel said the government may have averted economic catastrophe by taking on the rescue. The automotive industry represents about 6.5 percent of the manufacturing jobs in the United States.
"Preserving portions of Chrysler and General Motors might have resulted in savings for the government in other ways," the report said.
GM issued a statement Tuesday night saying that it was a stronger company than it was before its bankruptcy filing and government rescue. "We are confident that we will repay our nation's support because we are a company with less debt, a stronger balance sheet, a winning product portfolio and the right size to match today's market realities," it said.
The panel also addressed complaints that the government-led bankruptcy proceedings for the two automakers set precedents that could make investors wary. In each case, many investors were wiped out or took substantial losses. But the panel said it is difficult to predict what effect the bankruptcies may have on investment decisions.
"Academics and practitioners with whom the Panel's staff have spoken seem to believe that it is both too early and, given the number of variables, perhaps not possible to conclude one way or another as to what effect the government's involvement in the Chrysler bankruptcy will have on credit markets going forward," the report said.
Similarly, it said it was difficult to determine whether, as critics have charged, the bankruptcies were unusually abrupt or punishing to creditors.
"Because there is no one-size-fits-all bankruptcy for multi-billion dollar companies, it is difficult to categorize the Chrysler and GM bankruptcies as being either typical or atypical," it said.
The panel adopted the report on a 2 to 1 vote. Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Tex), the lone member of Congress on the panel and a staunch opponent of the auto industry rescue, voted against the report's findings. He accused the Obama administration of using the auto bailout, which began under the Bush administration, "to orchestrate the bankruptcies of Chrysler and GM so as to promote its economic, social and political agenda."
"By making such an unprecedented investment in Chrysler and GM, the Administration by definition chose not to assist other Americans that are in need," he said in a statement. "With the economic suffering the American taxpayers have endured during the past two years one wonders why Chrysler and GM merited such generosity to the exclusion of other taxpayers."
Oil prices finished higher
| Posted by mayur
NEW YORK - Oil prices finished higher for a second straight day Wednesday on continued weakening of the U.S. dollar and as investors awaited the outcome of an OPEC meeting that is expected to result in no change in production levels.Benchmark crude for October delivery rose 20 cents to settle at $71.31 a barrel trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange after reaching as high as $72.52 earlier in the session.
On Tuesday, the contract jumped $3.08 as the dollar fell to a low for the year against the euro.
Because crude is priced in the U.S. currency, it essentially becomes cheaper when the dollar falls.
“This is all about the U.S. dollar,” Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates said of the rising price of oil. “As the dollar stays weak, oil goes up.”
The dollar fell to its lowest level since last September against a basket of six major world currencies that includes the euro, yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, Swedish krona and Swiss franc.
Ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produces about 40 percent of the world’s oil, seemed to be satisfied with current prices for crude. Instead, this week’s meeting in Vienna is more about persuading members not to sell more oil than the quotas permit.
Prices are about twice their levels from December, when OPEC announced its record 4.2 million barrel per day cut from September 2008 levels. The price rally has been welcome news for cash-hungry member governments, but also a temptation to sell more oil.
Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., said compliance with those cuts announced in December has been declining since April. The latest estimates show that the 11 OPEC members bound by quotas overproduced their 24.85 million barrel per day target by about 1.4 million barrels a day, according to Platts.
Kuwait’s oil minister, Sheik Ahmed Al Abullah Al Sabah, said OPEC’s markets monitoring committee would suggest to the group that output targets be held steady.
Even as oil prices have risen, demand for crude has continued to remain weak.
Gasoline consumption for the week ended Friday fell 2.4 percent from a year ago after Hurricane Gustav barreled into the U.S. along the Texas-Louisiana line and remains flat year to date compared with 2008, according to the MasterCard SpendingPulse report issued Wednesday.
MasterCard’s report is based on aggregate sales activity in the MasterCard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and check.
Investors also are awaiting key data on Thursday that could drive prices for the rest of the week.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency will release its monthly report on global oil demand followed by the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly inventory data.
Analysts expect a decline in crude and gasoline stocks, but are looking for rise in distillates stocks used to make diesel fuel and heating oil, according to Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.
Prices at the pump fell 0.5 cents overnight to a national average of $2.573, according to auto club AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. Prices are now 7.2 cents below where they were a month ago and $1.079 below the year ago average.
In other Nymex trading, gasoline for October delivery was unchanged at $1.8281 a gallon while heating oil rose 1.19 cents to $1.7944 a gallon. Natural gas rose 2.2 cents to $2.829 per 1,000 cubic feet.
In London, Brent crude rose 42 cents to $69.84 on the ICE Futures exchange.
New York Mercantile Exchange
| Posted by mayurBenchmark crude for October delivery rose 20 cents to settle at $71.31 a barrel trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange after reaching as high as $72.52 earlier in the session.
On Tuesday, the contract jumped $3.08 as the dollar fell to a low for the year against the euro.
Because crude is priced in the U.S. currency, it essentially becomes cheaper when the dollar falls.
“This is all about the U.S. dollar,” Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates said of the rising price of oil. “As the dollar stays weak, oil goes up.”
The dollar fell to its lowest level since last September against a basket of six major world currencies that includes the euro, yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, Swedish krona and Swiss franc.
Ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produces about 40 percent of the world’s oil, seemed to be satisfied with current prices for crude. Instead, this week’s meeting in Vienna is more about persuading members not to sell more oil than the quotas permit.
Prices are about twice their levels from December, when OPEC announced its record 4.2 million barrel per day cut from September 2008 levels. The price rally has been welcome news for cash-hungry member governments, but also a temptation to sell more oil.
Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., said compliance with those cuts announced in December has been declining since April. The latest estimates show that the 11 OPEC members bound by quotas overproduced their 24.85 million barrel per day target by about 1.4 million barrels a day, according to Platts.
Kuwait’s oil minister, Sheik Ahmed Al Abullah Al Sabah, said OPEC’s markets monitoring committee would suggest to the group that output targets be held steady.
Even as oil prices have risen, demand for crude has continued to remain weak.
Gasoline consumption for the week ended Friday fell 2.4 percent from a year ago after Hurricane Gustav barreled into the U.S. along the Texas-Louisiana line and remains flat year to date compared with 2008, according to the MasterCard SpendingPulse report issued Wednesday.
MasterCard’s report is based on aggregate sales activity in the MasterCard payments network, coupled with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and check.
Investors also are awaiting key data on Thursday that could drive prices for the rest of the week.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency will release its monthly report on global oil demand followed by the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly inventory data.
Analysts expect a decline in crude and gasoline stocks, but are looking for rise in distillates stocks used to make diesel fuel and heating oil, according to Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.
Prices at the pump fell 0.5 cents overnight to a national average of $2.573, according to auto club AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. Prices are now 7.2 cents below where they were a month ago and $1.079 below the year ago average.
In other Nymex trading, gasoline for October delivery was unchanged at $1.8281 a gallon while heating oil rose 1.19 cents to $1.7944 a gallon. Natural gas rose 2.2 cents to $2.829 per 1,000 cubic feet.
In London, Brent crude rose 42 cents to $69.84 on the ICE Futures exchange.
The Great Depression
| Posted by mayur
But these two almost destroyed the US housing market and their downfall was the overture to the global financial crisis.On 7 September 2008, these giants of the financial world had to be nationalised by the US government.
Fannie Mae was a child of the Great Depression.
The Federal National Mortgage Association was set up in 1938. A government agency, its job was to buy home loans from mortgage providers.
The mortgage providers would use the money they received from Fannie Mae to make more home loans. Freddie Mac, set up in the late 60s, did the same thing.
But once Fannie and Freddie held all these mortgages on their books they had to do something with them.
Slice and dice
The answer was "securitisation". It's a process which works a bit like a layer cake.
2008 CRISIS TIMETABLE
7 SEPT: Fannie Mae nationalised
15 SEPT: Lehman bankruptcy
18 SEPT: Lloyds takes over HBOS
19 SEPT: $700bn US bail-out plan
29 SEPT: Bradford and Bingley nationalised
5 OCT: Bail-out plan agreed by Congress
12 OCT: UK bails out RBS and Lloyds-HBOS
You stack up all the mortgages horizontally and then slice them vertically.
Each slice contains a little bit of all the mortgages in the "cake" and can be sold on the financial markets as a "security" - an investment like a share or a bond.
But there was a flaw in the model.
If a sufficiently large number of homeowners defaulted on the underlying loans, then the value of those mortgage-backed securities would collapse.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would also be landed with the - very large - bill for the mortgage repayments.
Turning bad
That's what began to happen when the US housing bubble burst in 2007.
Millions of people defaulted on their home loans. The value of mortgage-backed securities began to fall.
So too did the share prices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Both organisations were incurring massive losses - $14 billion in the 12-month period up to September 2008 - as they paid out the guarantees on millions of bad home loans.
It was the first in a series of crisis Sundays as the US government grappled with a cascade of financial disasters
This put them desperately in need of new capital to fill the hole in their balance sheets.
But Fannie and Freddie had lost so much in the housing market that private investors were unwilling to provide the new money they needed.
They were on the brink of bankruptcy.
Falling giants
That event had the potential to trigger a collapse in the global financial system.
Fannie and Freddie, by this time privately owned, were the two biggest financial institutions on the planet.
Hank Paulson said Fannie and Freddie posed a risk to the entire system
Their bonds and securities were held by investors around the world, including many governments.
Together they owned or guaranteed half the mortgages in the United States - a staggering $5 trillion in home loans.
Fannie and Freddie were then responsible for financing 80% of all new mortgages in the US.
If they went bust it would be almost impossible for anybody in the States to get a home loan.
Fateful weekend
This was the situation facing the government as it entered the weekend of 6 and 7 September a year ago.
By the Sunday, the fateful decision had been made and Hank Paulson strode down the steps of the Treasury Department building in Washington DC like some prophet of doom with his gaunt expression and whispering voice.
The condition of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac posed a "systemic risk" to the entire financial edifice, he told the nation.
They could not continue in the present state, so the government was taking them into "conservatorship".
In plain language, these twin pillars of the mortgage market were being nationalised.
It was the first in a series of crisis Sundays, as the US government grappled with a cascade of financial disasters in the hope of resolving them before the markets re-opened for business at the start of another fraught week.
The nationalisation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was supposed to draw a line under the financial crisis.
Instead, it merely acted as a prelude to the far more shocking events that were soon to unfold before an astonished world
Risks
| Posted by mayur
"The crisis will happen again but it will be different," he told BBC Two's The Love of Money series.He added that he had predicted the crash would come as a reaction to a long period of prosperity.
But while it may take time and be a difficult process, the global economy would eventually "get through it", Mr Greenspan added.
"They [financial crises] are all different, but they have one fundamental source," he said.
BBC AFTERSHOCK SEASON
"That is the unquenchable capability of human beings when confronted with long periods of prosperity to presume that it will continue."
Speaking a year after the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers, which was followed by a worldwide financial crisis and global recession, Mr Greenspan described the behaviour as "human nature".
He said the current crisis was triggered by the trade in US sub-prime mortgages - home loans given to people with bad credit histories - but he added that any factor could have been the catalyst.
If it were not the problem of these toxic debts "something sooner or later would have emerged", Mr Greenspan said.
Risks
Mr Greenspan, who when he ran the US central bank was hailed as a man who could move markets, also warned that the world's financial institutions should have seen the looming crisis.
"The bankers knew that they were involved in an under-pricing of risk and that at some point a correction would be made," he said.
Greenspan view on global economy
"I fear too many of them thought they would be able to spot the actual trigger point of the crisis in time to get out."
He also warned that Britain, with its globally-focussed economy, would be harder hit than the US by the current recession and collapse in world trade.
"Obviously we've both suffered very considerably but ... Britain is more globally oriented as an economy and the dramatic decline in exports globally and trade generally following the collapse of Lehman Brothers had dramatic effects in the financial system of Britain," Mr Greenspan said.
"It's going to take a long while for you [Britain] to work your way through this."
Road to recovery
In order to prevent the situation arising again financiers and governments should look to clamp down on fraud and increase capital requirements for banks, the former central banker said.
Regulations targeting the latter would mean banks would be forced to hold enough money to cover their normal operations and honour withdrawals.
However despite his belief in a brighter future, the former Fed chief did warn that the path to recovery should steer clear of protectionism as applying strict regulations could hamper recent developments that have opened up global trade.
"The most recent endeavour to re-regulate is a reaction to the crisis. The extraordinary impact of these global markets is making a lot of financial people feeling they have lost control.
"The problem is you cannot have free global trade with highly restrictive, regulated domestic markets."
Historic event
During the interview for BBC Two's The Love of Money series, the former Fed chief said the current economic crisis was a "once in a century type of event", and one that he did not expect to witness.
Blamed by some for not doing more to prevent the crisis, Mr Greenspan denied any responsibility for the problems gripping the global economy.
"It's human nature, unless somebody can find a way to change human nature, we will have more crises and none of them will look like this because no two crises have anything in common, except human nature."
Jobs in biotech
Thursday, 3 September 2009
| Posted by mayur
When General Electric (NYSE:GE - News) Chief Executive Jeffrey Immelt delivered a speech at the Detroit Economic Club in June, he sounded more like a Midwestern governor than the leader of a $143 billion company whose ultimate responsibility is to his shareholders."We should set a goal to have manufacturing jobs be no less than 20% of total employment, about twice what it is today," Immelt said. "This is a national imperative." According to Susan Helper, chair of the economics department at Case Western Reserve University's Weatherhead School of Management, the speech turned heads. "GE had been a leader of offshoring, saying it was just too expensive to manufacture in the U.S., so to hear Immelt arguing that we need to rebuild our industrial base is significant," she says.
For those workers and communities hardest hit by the disappearance of manufacturing jobs in the U.S., Immelt's words offered a glimmer of hope in an otherwise bleak picture. The July employment report released on Aug. 7 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while better than expected, showed that the sector had lost 52,000 jobs in July. That brings the total drop since December 2007 to 2 million jobs, or roughly 14.2% of that sector's employment. A report released Sept. 1 by the Institute for Supply Management showing that the manufacturing sector expanded in August -- a first since January 2008 -- suggested that the industry might have hit the bottom of this recession. But even before the current crisis, manufacturing faced immense challenges. The Alliance for American Manufacturing (which last month published a book, Manufacturing a Better Future for America, laying most of the blame for the current state of affairs on U.S. trade policy) estimates that more than 40,000 factories across the nation have closed in the past decade.
But how realistic is Immelt's claim that "good jobs can return to manufacturing centers across America," and what kinds of jobs would those be? What forces could reverse the decades-long trend of multinationals shipping low-value factory jobs, such as assembling circuit boards, to lower-wage regions? And if those jobs aren't coming back, will enough new ones be created in emerging sectors to realize his goal of manufacturing jobs making up 20% of all U.S. employment? Immelt thinks the bulk of new manufacturing jobs will be in clean energy and health care, not in more traditional, low-skill areas.
A Manufacturing Renaissance?
In the last six months, Wright Engineered Plastics, a small injection-molder in Santa Rosa, Calif., with clients in the medical and telecom industries, has signed three new clients that have decided to move production back to the U.S. "Their reasons ranged," says Wright President and CEO Barbara Roberts. "Higher transportation costs and rising wages in China are making it more cost-effective for some to manufacture here. Two, in particular, were having significant quality issues."
Some companies are moving production back to the U.S. simply to make their supply chains faster. "Companies these days want to keep their inventories lean, and they can't afford to let product sit for 30 days on a boat from China," says Richard Sinkin, a San Diego consultant who scouts manufacturing sites in the U.S., Mexico, and China for multinationals. "People used to talk about just-in-time manufacturing, but now we have just-in-time retailing and that changes the dynamics incredibly."
But don't expect a sudden return of low-skill jobs to the U.S. "This has been going on for a century with no sign that it is going to let up," says Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board, a business research group. "Low-value activities move elsewhere, and you replace those jobs with higher value-added activities. Jobs in biotech, high tech, and the energy field." But even counting in those higher-skilled jobs, Goldstein called Immelt's 20% goal "unrealistic," saying "that would be almost 30 million jobs -- we didn't even have that many manufacturing jobs in 1960."
Immelt's speech was not a nostalgic call for a reincarnation of America's 20th century manufacturing landscape. But he did admit that, in some areas, GE had outsourced too much and that it planned to "insource" some higher-value activities such as aviation component production and manufacturing-related software development. To that end, he announced plans to build a Manufacturing Technology & Software Center to develop next-generation manufacturing technologies for GE's leading renewable energy, aircraft engine, gas turbine, and other high-technology products. The $100 million, 100,000-square-foot facility in Wayne County, 25 miles east of Detroit, would create 1,100 jobs.
Pennsylvania Factory Park
A similar renewal may be starting to happen in Fairless Hills, Pa., 22 miles east of Philadelphia, where a sprawling industrial site, once home to U.S. Steel (NYSE:X - News), is active again. In 2006, Gamesa Corporacin Tecnolgica, a Spanish manufacturer and one of the world's biggest suppliers of windmills, expanded the plant to make nacelles, the covers that house the moving parts of turbines. Blades and towers are produced at the company's plant in Ebensburg, Pa.
And Gamesa isn't the only company that has moved to the 2,400-acre site, which is still owned by USS Real Estate, the steel company's property management arm, and has been renamed Keystone Industrial Port Complex. Dominion Generation's Fairless Energy plant, which produces power from natural gas-fired generators, is also a tenant, as are AE Polysilicon, which produces a substance needed for solar cells, and biodiesel producer Biofuel Advanced Research & Development.
In total, 18 companies -- roughly one-third of which are in the clean energy or recycling business -- are now operating at the complex, lured by a combination of industrial amenities, such as access to two railroads and a deepwater port on the Delaware River, and tax incentives. Gamesa, for its part, negotiated a package of approximately $10 million in state and local grants, loans, and tax credits for its Fairless Hills operation.
The windmill maker hasn't been left untouched by the recession. With demand for turbines slowing and credit tight, Gamesa USA has cut 150 jobs in Pennsylvania, though it hopes those will be temporary layoffs. Still, it employs 850 people and indirectly created manufacturing jobs in Pennsylvania through its efforts to build a local network of suppliers to produce the nearly 8,000 components of its turbines, 75% of which are now made oversees. "We've been working with U.S. suppliers and have also convinced some of our European providers to come here and set up shop," says Michael Peck, a Gamesa USA spokesman.
Providing Incentives for Expansion
While it's too early to count Pennsylvania's $10 million Gamesa gambit a success, it offers a model for rebuilding manufacturing through a combination of public incentives, research-and-development tax credits, and corporate investments focused on a burgeoning area like clean energy -- along the lines Immelt laid out in his speech. It's worth noting, too, that GE's planned Manufacturing Technology center in Michigan reflects the same public/private approach. The state will provide more than $60 million in incentives to GE over the next 12 years to support the center. Spurred by up to $17 million in state and local incentives, and a temporary wage freeze negotiated with the union, GE also recently decided to expand an appliances plant in Louisville rather than manufacture its new hybrid water heaters in China. "The Louisville team has committed to quality and productivity standards that make them competitive, and we can make the same profit," Immelt told his Detroit audience.
"Solving the clean energy challenge will create broad economic opportunity in this country," said Immelt, and he urged business and government to work together to that end.
Pennsylvania and Michigan's incentives are smart, says Sinkin. "But we need dramatic policies at the federal level. Obama (requiring) that every government building had solar panels, for example," he says. "Now that would stimulate jobs."












